So here it is, another year. “Another year over, and a new one just begun,” as John Lennon said before Yoko added her cacophonic voice. I just it’s time to look over last year and see look at some of the predictions I made. Specifically at the start of the year and in May, I said:
- That we would see the end of all of this deflation talk. In terms of the major media, we more or less have. It don’t see anyone talking about deflation in the mainstream media today, but I expect that to change. I think we’ll see a resurgence of deflationary talk as the stock market loses ground. Deflationary talk seems to follow stock market collapses the way flies swarm to carrion, and this stock market seems prone for another leg down. When it does, get ready for more talk of deflation.
- I also said that long-term government bonds were not a good place to park your money last year. Well, let’s look at the benchmark of Hoisington Long Term US Treasury fund. It opened last year at around $19.50 and went straight down the whole year to end at around $14. OUCH. Of course, this hasn’t stopped Dr. Lacy Hunt from yammering about what a great investment government bonds are, but it’s not everyday you can lose a third of your investment on government bonds. Way to go, Van Hoisongton investors.
- I said that Barrick Gold was a good place to put your money, and I made a good a good 30% or so off of trading that stock on the way up. Look ma, no doctorate in Ecnomics!
Well, I’m feeling pretty smug about last year. As for this year, I’m thinking Barrick should hit $50 a share or so on the next 90 days, which will make me a fair amount of money. I’m also thinking that we’ll see another significant stock market decline, so hold onto your hats stock investors. This years going to be really hairy.